Ngokukhula kwe-5G, i-AI kunye ne-high-performance computing markets, imfuno yabathwali be-IC, ngokukodwa abathwali be-ABF, iqhume.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokunqongophala kwamandla ababoneleli abafanelekileyo, ukunikezelwa kwe-ABF
abathwali banqongophele kwaye ixabiso liyaqhubeka nokunyuka.Ushishino lulindele ukuba ingxaki yonikezelo oluqinileyo lweepleyiti ze-ABF ze-carrier zingaqhubeka de kube ngu-2023. Kulo mxholo, izityalo ezine ezinkulu zokulayisha ipleyiti eTaiwan, i-Xinxing, i-Nandian, i-Jingshuo kunye ne-Zhending KY, ziqalise izicwangciso zokwandisa i-ABF yokulayisha ipleyiti kulo nyaka, kunye iyonke inkcitho eyinkunzi engaphezulu kwe-NT $65 yeebhiliyoni (malunga ne-RMB 15.046 yeebhiliyoni) kumhlaba omkhulu kunye nezityalo zaseTaiwan.Ukongeza, i-Ibiden kunye ne-Shinko yaseJapan, i-Samsung motor yaseMzantsi Korea kunye ne-Dade electronics baye balwandisa ngakumbi utyalo-mali lwabo kwiipleyiti zokuthwala i-ABF.
Imfuno kunye nexabiso lebhodi yokuthwala i-ABF inyuka ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukunqongophala kunokuqhubeka kude kube ngu-2023
I-IC substrate iphuhliswa ngesiseko sebhodi ye-HDI (ibhodi yesekethe ye-high-density interconnection), eneempawu zokuxinana okuphezulu, ukuchaneka okuphezulu, i-miniaturization kunye nokunciphisa.Njengomathiriyeli ophakathi odibanisa itshiphu kunye nebhodi yesekethe kwinkqubo yokupakishwa kwetshiphu, umsebenzi ophambili webhodi yokuthwala i-ABF kukuqhuba uxinaniso oluphezulu kunye nonxibelelwano olunesantya esiphezulu sonxibelelwano kunye netshiphu, emva koko unxibelelane nebhodi enkulu yePCB ngokusebenzisa imigca engaphezulu. kwibhodi ye-IC carrier, edlala indima yokudibanisa, ukwenzela ukukhusela ingqibelelo yesekethe, ukunciphisa ukuvuza, ukulungisa indawo yomgca Kukulungele ukuchithwa kobushushu obungcono be-chip ukukhusela i-chip, kunye nokufaka i-passive kunye nesebenzayo. izixhobo ukuphumeza imisebenzi ethile inkqubo.
Okwangoku, kwintsimi yokupakisha okuphezulu, umthwali we-IC uye waba yinxalenye eyimfuneko yokupakishwa kwe-chip.Idatha ibonisa ukuba ngoku, umlinganiselo we-IC carrier kwindleko yokupakisha iyonke ifikelele malunga ne-40%.
Phakathi kwabathwali be-IC, kukho ikakhulu i-ABF (i-Ajinomoto yakha ifilimu) abathwali kunye nabathwali be-BT ngokweendlela ezahlukeneyo zobugcisa ezifana nenkqubo ye-resin ye-CLL.
Phakathi kwazo, ibhodi yokuthwala i-ABF isetyenziselwa ikakhulu iitshiphusi eziphezulu zekhompyuter ezinjengeCPU, GPU, FPGA kunye ne-ASIC.Emva kokuba ezi chips zivelisiwe, zihlala zifuna ukupakishwa kwibhodi yokuthwala i-ABF ngaphambi kokuba idityaniswe kwibhodi enkulu yePCB.Nje ukuba umthwali we-ABF uphelelwe sisitokhwe, abavelisi abakhulu ababandakanya i-Intel kunye ne-AMD abanakukwazi ukusinda kwikamva lokuba i-chip ayinakuthunyelwa.Ukubaluleka komthwali we-ABF kunokubonwa.
Ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka odlulileyo, ngenxa yokukhula kwe-5g, i-cloud AI computing, iiseva kunye nezinye iimarike, imfuno ye-chips ye-high-performance computing (HPC) inyuke kakhulu.Ngokudityaniswa nokukhula kwemfuno yentengiso yeofisi yasekhaya / ukuzonwabisa, izithuthi kunye nezinye iimarike, imfuno ye-CPU, i-GPU kunye neetshiphusi ze-AI kwicala le-terminal inyuke kakhulu, ethe yanyusa imfuno yeebhodi zabathwali be-ABF.Idityaniswe nefuthe lengozi yomlilo kwifektri yase-Ibiden Qingliu, umzi-mveliso omkhulu othwala i-IC, kunye ne-Xinxing Electronic Shanying factory, abathwali be-ABF emhlabeni banqongophele kakhulu.
NgoFebruwari kulo nyaka, kwakukho iindaba kwimarike yokuba iipleyiti ze-ABF ze-carrier zazinqongophele kakhulu, kwaye umjikelo wokuhanjiswa ubude kangangeeveki ezingama-30.Ngokubonelelwa ngokufutshane kwe-ABF ye-carrier plate, ixabiso liqhubekile nokunyuka.Idatha ibonisa ukuba ukususela kwikota yesine yonyaka odlulileyo, ixabiso le-IC carrier board liye laqhubeka likhula, kubandakanywa nebhodi ye-BT ye-BT malunga ne-20%, ngelixa i-ABF ibhodi ye-ABF iphakamisa i-30% - 50%.
Njengoko umthamo womthwali we-ABF usezandleni zabavelisi abambalwa eTaiwan, eJapan naseMzantsi Korea, ukwandiswa kwabo kwemveliso bekuncinci kwixesha elidlulileyo, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima ukuthomalalisa ukunqongophala konikezelo lwe-ABF ngexesha elifutshane. ixesha.
Ke ngoko, uninzi lwabavelisi bokupakisha kunye novavanyo baqala ukucebisa ukuba abathengi bokugqibela batshintshe inkqubo yokwenziwa kwezinye iimodyuli ukusuka kwinkqubo yeBGA efuna umthwali we-ABF kumgca wenkqubo ye-QFN, ukuze kuthintelwe ukulibaziseka kokuthunyelwa ngenxa yokungakwazi ukucwangcisa umthamo womthwali we-ABF. .
Abavelisi bezithuthi bathi okwangoku, umzi-mveliso ngamnye ophetheyo awunayo indawo enkulu yokunxibelelana nayo nayiphi na iodolo "yokutsiba emgceni" ngexabiso eliphezulu leyunithi, kwaye yonke into ilawulwa ngabathengi ababeqinisekisa ngaphambili umthamo.Ngoku abanye abathengi baye bathetha malunga nomthamo kunye no-2023,
Ngaphambili, ingxelo yophando yeGoldman Sachs nayo yabonisa ukuba nangona i-ABF eyandisiweyo yokuthwala i-IC carrier Nandian kwisityalo saseKunshan kwilizwe laseChina kulindeleke ukuba iqale kwikota yesibini yalo nyaka, ngenxa yokwandiswa kwexesha lokunikezelwa kwezixhobo ezifunekayo kwimveliso. Ukwandiswa ukuya kwi-8 ~ 12 iinyanga, umthamo we-ABF we-carrier wehlabathi unyuke nge-10% ~ 15% kuphela kulo nyaka, kodwa imfuno yemarike iyaqhubeka nokuba namandla, kwaye i-gap yemfuno yokubonelela ngokubanzi kulindeleke ukuba ibe nzima ukuyinciphisa ngo-2022.
Kwiminyaka emibini ezayo, ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwemfuno yeePC, iiseva zefu kunye neetshiphusi ze-AI, imfuno yabathwali be-ABF iya kuqhubeka nokunyuka.Ukongeza, ukwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi ye-5g yehlabathi kuya kudla kwakhona inani elikhulu labathwali be-ABF.
Ukongeza, kunye nokucotha komthetho kaMoore, abavelisi be-chip nabo baqala ukusebenzisa ngakumbi nangakumbi ubugcisa bokupakisha obuphambili ukuqhubeka nokukhuthaza iinzuzo zoqoqosho zomthetho kaMoore.Ngokomzekelo, itekhnoloji yeChiplet, ephuhliswe ngamandla kwishishini, ifuna ubungakanani obukhulu be-ABF yokuthwala kunye nemveliso ephantsi yemveliso.Kulindeleke ukuba iphucule ngakumbi imfuno yomthwali we-ABF.Ngokoqikelelo lwe-Tuopu Industry Research Institute, i-avareji yemfuno yenyanga ye-ABF carrier plates iya kukhula ukusuka kwi-185 yezigidi ukuya kwi-345 yezigidi ukusuka ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2023, ngesantya sokukhula sonyaka esiyi-16.9%.
Iifektri ezinkulu zokulayisha iipleyiti ziyandisile imveliso yazo enye emva kwenye
Ngenxa yokunqongophala okuqhubekayo kweepleyiti zokuthwala i-ABF ngoku kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwemfuno yemarike kwixesha elizayo, abenzi beepleyiti ezine ze-IC ezinkulu eTaiwan, i-Xinxing, iNandian, i-jingshuo kunye ne-Zhending KY, baqalise izicwangciso zokwandisa imveliso kulo nyaka, kunye iyonke inkcitho eyinkunzi engaphezulu kwe-NT $65 yeebhiliyoni (malunga ne-RMB 15.046 yeebhiliyoni) eza kutyalwa kwiifektri kumhlaba omkhulu naseTaiwan.Ukongeza, i-Ibiden kunye ne-Shinko yaseJapan nazo zagqibezela iiprojekthi zokwandiswa kwee-yen ezibhiliyoni ezili-180 kunye ne-90 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni ngokulandelelanayo.I-Samsung yaseMzantsi Korea yombane kunye ne-Dade electronics nazo zandise utyalo-mali lwazo.
Phakathi kwezityalo ezine ze-IC ze-IC ezixhaswa ngemali ye-Taiwan, inkcitho enkulu ye-capital kulo nyaka yayiyi-Xinxing, isityalo esihamba phambili, esafikelela kwi-NT $ 36.221 yezigidigidi (malunga ne-RMB 8.884 yezigidigidi), ibalwa ngaphezu kwe-50% yotyalo-mali lulonke lwezityalo ezine, kwaye ukwanda okubalulekileyo kwe-157% xa kuthelekiswa ne-NT $ 14.087 yebhiliyoni kunyaka ophelileyo.I-Xinxing inyuse inkcitho yayo eyinkunzi kane kulo nyaka, ibalaselisa imeko yangoku yokuba intengiso inqabile.Ukongeza, i-Xinxing isayine izivumelwano zexesha elide zeminyaka emithathu kunye nabanye abathengi ukunqanda umngcipheko wokuguqulwa kwemfuno yemarike.
I-Nandian iceba ukuchitha ubuncinane i-NT $ 8 yezigidigidi (malunga ne-RMB 1.852 yezigidigidi) kwi-capital kulo nyaka, ngokunyuka konyaka ngaphezu kwe-9%.Kwangaxeshanye, iya kuphinda iqhube iprojekthi yotyalo-mali ye-NT yeebhiliyoni ezisibhozo kwiminyaka emibini ezayo ukwandisa umgca wokulayisha webhodi ye-ABF yesityalo saseTaiwan Shulin.Kulindeleke ukuba ivule umthamo omtsha wokulayisha ibhodi ukusuka ekupheleni kuka-2022 ukuya ku-2023.
Enkosi ngenkxaso eyomeleleyo yenkampani yabazali yeqela le-Heshuo, i-Jingshuo iye yandisa ngokusebenzayo umthamo wemveliso ye-ABF carrier.Inkcitho eyinkunzi kulo nyaka, kubandakanywa ukuthengwa komhlaba kunye nokwandiswa kwemveliso, kuqikelelwa ukuba idlule i-NT $ 10 yezigidigidi, kuquka i-NT $ 4.485 yezigidigidi zokuthengwa komhlaba kunye nezakhiwo kwi-Myrica rubra.Idityaniswe notyalo-mali lwangaphambili ekuthengeni izixhobo kunye nenkqubo debottlenecking ukwandiswa ABF carrier, iyonke inkcitho capital kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngaphezu 244% xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo, Kwakhona isityalo carrier yesibini eTaiwan inkcitho yayo eyinkunzi. idlule kwi-NT yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ezili-10.
Ngaphantsi kwesicwangciso sokuthenga okukodwa kwiminyaka yamuva nje, iqela leZhending alizange lenze ngempumelelo kuphela inzuzo kwishishini elikhoyo le-BT carrier kwaye liqhubekile liphindaphinda kabini umthamo walo wokuvelisa, kodwa ngaphakathi liqukunjelwe isicwangciso seminyaka emihlanu yokucwangcisa umthwali kwaye waqala ukunyathela. kumphathi we-ABF.
Ngelixa ulwandiso olukhulu lwaseTaiwan lomthamo wokuthwala i-ABF, iJapan kunye neSouth Korea izicwangciso zokwandiswa komthamo omkhulu wabathwali nazo ziyakhawuleza mva nje.
I-Ibiden, i-plate carrier enkulu eJapan, igqibezele isicwangciso sokwandisa i-plate carrier ye-yen ye-180 yebhiliyoni (malunga ne-10.606 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan), ejolise ekudaleni ixabiso lemveliso elingaphezulu kwe-yen ye-250 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2022, elilingana ne-US $ 2.13 yebhiliyoni.UShinko, omnye umenzi wenkampani yaseJapan kunye nomthengisi obalulekileyo we-Intel, uye waqukumbela isicwangciso sokwandisa ii-yen ezibhiliyoni ezingama-90 (malunga ne-5.303 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan).Kulindeleke ukuba umthamo wokuthwala uya kunyuka nge-40% ngo-2022 kwaye ingeniso iya kufikelela malunga ne-US $ 1.31 yebhiliyoni.
Ukongeza, imoto yaseMzantsi Korea ye-Samsung inyuse umyinge wengeniso yokulayisha ipleyiti ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-70% kulo nyaka uphelileyo kwaye iqhubekile nokutyala imali.I-Dade electronics, enye iplanti yokulayisha ipleyiti yaseMzantsi Korea, nayo iguqule isityalo sayo se-HDI kwiplanti yokulayisha ipleyiti ye-ABF, ngenjongo yokunyusa ingeniso efanelekileyo nge-US $ 130 yezigidi kwi-2022.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-26-2021